In recent months, a new narrative has started to circulate in the market:
“It seems the EU CBAM may be postponed until 2027. Does that mean we can afford to wait and see?”
Many Taiwanese exporters—particularly in steel, aluminum, cement, chemicals, and other energy-intensive manufacturing sectors—are quietly weighing the same question:
should capital expenditures be put on hold, at least for now?
From the perspective of an accountant and financial advisor, I would put it bluntly:
a delay is not a cancellation—and waiting may ultimately prove to be the most expensive option of all.
1. What a CBAM Delay Really Signals: Not Relaxation, but Time to Prepare
Let’s first clarify how the system works.The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its transitional phase in 2023, with substantive charges originally expected to be phased in from 2026. Recently, market discussions have suggested a possible postponement until 2027. However, one critical distinction must be made.
All publicly available information so far concerns the timing and pacing of payments, not a change in the underlying policy direction.
When viewed in the context of EU legislation and climate policy, the core objective of CBAM has remained consistent. It is designed as a key instrument to achieve climate neutrality while safeguarding the competitiveness of domestic industries.
In other words, this is not a step back. It is an extension of the transition period, giving companies more time to adjust their cost structures and operations.
For exporters, the real question is therefore not whether to wait, but rather:
“If full CBAM charges are confirmed in 2027, can our current cost structure withstand them?”
Image source: FREEPIK
2. The Financial Risk of “Waiting It Out”: Not Saving CAPEX, but Building Up a One-Off Shock
The reason many companies choose to wait is straightforward.Low-carbon equipment, process optimization, and energy transitions all require CAPEX, and investment pressure is already high. But from a financial perspective, the real danger lies not in phased investment, but in allowing risks to accumulate and erupt all at once.
If a company does nothing and waits until CBAM moves into full-scale charging, it will face three challenges simultaneously:
- The sudden crystallization of carbon costs: Emissions that were previously embedded in production processes are transformed into tariff-like costs, immediately squeezing gross margins.
- Forced, simultaneous capital investment: At that point, it will not just be your company investing—entire industries will be competing for equipment, capacity, and engineering resources at the same time.
- A concurrent reassessment of risk by markets and financial institutions: Investors and banks will not wait patiently for a gradual transition. Companies that lag behind will be swiftly categorized as high-carbon, high-risk suppliers.
Based on practical accounting experience, delaying CAPEX does not reduce total spending.
It simply means spending more, all in the same year.
Image source: FREEPIK
3. Treat CBAM as a CAPEX Scheduling Issue, Not an Environmental Debate
Mature companies do not frame the question as “whether to go low-carbon.”Instead, they ask something more practical:
“How do we turn low-carbon investments into predictable, phased capital expenditures?”
This requires a fundamental shift in mindset.
- Old thinking: CBAM is an additional cost to be absorbed passively
- New thinking (from a financial perspective): CBAM is a stress test that forces earlier optimization of production processes
- Using the delay period to gradually upgrade carbon-intensive processes
- Breaking low-carbon investments into a two- to three-year CAPEX plan
- Converting future carbon border charges into depreciation costs that can be managed today
The benefits are straightforward:
the financial statements can absorb the impact, cash flows become predictable, and management avoids unpleasant surprises.
4. Why Early Action Strengthens Confidence Among Shareholders and Banks
The impact of CBAM on companies has never been confined to customs declarations.In reality, it is directly reflected in three key areas:
- How shareholders assess long-term competitiveness: A carbon-intensive structure signals higher uncertainty around future profitability.
- How banks evaluate credit risk: Opaque carbon costs are effectively treated as latent cash flow risk.
- Whether customers view you as a reliable supplier: Global brands have already begun requiring suppliers to disclose carbon data and transition pathways.
The true value of deploying low-carbon processes early is not about “how much tax can be saved.”
It lies in clearly demonstrating to all stakeholders that the company is not reacting under pressure, but managing risk through deliberate planning.
This directly influences financing terms, long-term commercial relationships, and the stability of corporate valuation.
5. Conclusion: A CBAM Delay Is a Dividend for Those Who Are Prepared
From a professional accountant’s perspective, this is how it should be summed up:a delay in CBAM was never meant to justify inaction. It is a time window designed to reduce the risk of making the wrong decisions.
Those who will be hurt in 2027 will not be the ones who invested early.
It will be the ones who waited until the very last moment to move.
Regulatory and Policy References
- European Commission — Official CBAM policy framework and legislative documents
- OECD — Analysis of carbon pricing and cross-border adjustment mechanisms
- IFRS Foundation — Disclosure framework for climate-related risks and financial impacts
- World Bank — Carbon Pricing Dashboard
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